# Prediction Markets Trade the outcome of a future event. Each market asks one question — *Will BTC be above $100,000 at 08:00 UTC on September 30?* — and you take a position on **YES**, **NO**, or one of several listed outcomes. > **Key takeaway:** Price **is** probability: YES at $0.65 means the market prices the event at roughly 65%. A winning share settles at **$1**, a losing share at **$0**, so your maximum loss is capped at what you paid. Always 1x — no leverage, no funding, no liquidation. ## Price represents probability | YES price | Implied probability | |---|---| | $0.20 | ~20% | | $0.50 | ~50% | | $0.80 | ~80% | Prices move continuously as traders update their views. In a binary market, `YES price + NO price ≈ $1.00` — small gaps come from the spread and available liquidity. Buy **YES** when you think the event is more likely than the YES price implies; buy **NO** when you think it is less likely. ## How payouts work Shares settle after the market resolves: `1 winning share = $1.00`, `1 losing share = $0`. Buy 100 YES at $0.60 → cost `100 × $0.60 = $60`. - YES wins: `100 × $1.00 = $100`, profit **$40**. - YES loses: `$0`, loss **$60**. Fees are excluded from the example. > **Warning:** Prices reflect market expectations and guarantee nothing. If your position settles at $0 you lose the full amount you paid for it. ## You can exit before resolution You do not have to hold to resolution. If there is liquidity, sell at any time: buy YES at $0.40, sell at $0.70, realize the difference. Execution depends on liquidity and the fill price you get. ## Versus perpetuals | | Perps | Predictions | |---|---|---| | You trade | the price of an asset | the outcome of an event | | Direction | long or short | YES or NO | | Leverage | up to 60x | none — always 1x | | Expiry | none; hold while margin holds | settles when the event resolves | | Price means | market price of the underlying | implied probability (63¢ ≈ 63%) | | Payoff | scales with the move and your leverage | $1 if right, $0 if not | | Max loss | liquidation risk with leverage | capped at what you paid | | Fees | [VIP tier rates](/trade/fees.md) | market-specific | | Funding | paid or received while open | none | ## Events provider Prediction markets on TxFlow are provided by [**Probly**](https://www.probly.com/en); TxFlow provides the trading interface. See the [Probly documentation](https://docs.probly.com/) for provider-side detail. > **Warning:** These markets carry elevated risk beyond ordinary market risk — including thin liquidity, incomplete documentation, imperfect settlement, and incorrect outcome resolution. Prediction markets are **excluded from the points program**. ## In this section | Page | Covers | |---|---| | [Market Types](/prediction/market-types.md) | Binary and category markets, crypto up/down markets | | [Trading](/prediction/trading.md) | Choosing a side, order types, the book, position value, fees | | [Resolution & Settlement](/prediction/resolution-and-settlement.md) | Resolution rules, settlement, cancelled and invalid markets |