Overview

What are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of future events.

Each market asks a specific question, such as:

Will BTC be above $100,000 at 08:00 UTC on September 30?

Depending on the market, you can take a position on YES, NO, or one of several possible outcomes.

Price Represents Probability

Prediction market prices can be interpreted as the market's implied probability of an outcome.

For example:

YES Price	Implied Probability
$0.20	~20%
$0.50	~50%
$0.80	~80%

If YES trades at $0.65, the market is pricing the event at approximately a 65% probability.

Prices change continuously as traders update their views and place orders.

YES and NO

In a binary market:

• Buy YES if you believe the event is more likely to happen than the current YES price implies.

• Buy NO if you believe the event is less likely to happen than the current YES price implies.

For example, if YES trades at $0.40, the market implies an approximately 40% probability. If you believe the actual probability is higher, you may choose to buy YES.

YES and NO prices generally satisfy:

YES Price + NO Price ≈ $1.00

Small differences may appear because of the bid ask spread and available liquidity.

How Payouts Work

Outcome shares settle after the market is resolved.

• If your outcome wins: 1 winning share = $1.00

• If your outcome loses: 1 losing share = $0

Example:

1. You buy 100 YES shares at $0.60.

Cost = 100 × $0.60 = $60

1. If YES wins:

Settlement Value = 100 × $1.00 = $100

Profit = $100 - $60 = $40

1. If YES loses:

Settlement Value = $0

Loss = $60

Trading fees are excluded from the example above.

Prediction market prices reflect market expectations and do not guarantee future outcomes. If your position settles at $0, you may lose the full amount paid for that position.

You Can Exit Before Resolution

You do not need to hold a position until the event is resolved.

If there is sufficient market liquidity, you can sell your shares before resolution.

For example:

You buy YES at $0.40.

Later, YES trades at $0.70.

You can sell your position and realize the price difference without waiting for the final event result.

Actual execution depends on available liquidity and the price at which your order is filled.

Prediction Markets vs Perpetual Futures

Prediction markets behave differently from perpetual futures.

Prediction market positions represent exposure to a specific event outcome and have a final settlement value of either $1 or $0.

	Perps	Predictions
You trade	The price of an asset	The outcome of an event
Direction	Long or short	Yes or no
Leverage	Up to 60x	None. Always 1x
Expiry	None. Hold as long as your margin holds	Settles when the event resolves
Price means	Market price of the underlying asset	mplied probability of an outcome. 63¢ ≈ 63%
Payoff	Scales with the move and your leverage	$1 if you're right, $0 if not
Max loss	Liquidation risk with leverage	Capped at what you paid
Fees	VIP tier rates	Market-specific trading fees
Funding fee	Paid or received while your position is open	None

Events Provider

Prediction markets available on TxFlow are provided by Probly.

TxFlow provides the trading experience through the TxFlow interface.

Important

See Probly documentation for more information. Be aware of elevated risk, including but not limited to low liquidity, incomplete documentation, imperfect settlement, and incorrect outcome.

Prediction markets are excluded from the points program. Full rules are coming at launch.